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ResearchDemocratic Trends

A Decade of Democratic Backsliding: What the Data Shows (2016–2026)

The Voting Institute8 min read

The Third Wave in Reverse

Political scientist Samuel Huntington identified three "waves" of democratization in modern history. What we're living through now may be the third wave's recession. V-Dem's data shows that for the first time since the early 2000s, more countries are moving toward autocracy than toward democracy.

This analysis tracks democratic change across 179 countries over the past decade, using V-Dem's Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) as the primary measure, cross-referenced with the EIU Democracy Index and Freedom House ratings.

The Numbers

As of 2025, V-Dem classifies:

29
Liberal Democracies
Lowest since 1990
59
Electoral Democracies
56
Electoral Autocracies
35
Closed Autocracies

The population-weighted picture is even starker: 72% of the world's population lives under autocratic governance, the highest share since 1978.

72%
Under Autocracy
5.8 billion people
28%
Under Democracy
2.2 billion people

The Anatomy of Modern Backsliding

The defining feature of 21st-century democratic erosion is its gradualism. Military coups still happen (Mali 2020, 2021; Myanmar 2021; Burkina Faso 2022; Niger 2023; Gabon 2023), but the more common — and harder to counter — pattern is elected leaders systematically weakening democratic constraints from within.

The Playbook

Based on V-Dem's data across 42 countries experiencing significant democratic decline since 2016, a consistent sequence emerges:

The Autocratization Playbook

Phase 1(Years 1–2)
Media Capture
Elected leaders attack media credibility, then move to ownership consolidation, advertising pressure on critical outlets, and regulatory harassment. Media freedom scores decline before any other indicator in 78% of backsliding cases.
Phase 2(Years 2–4)
Judicial Interference
Court-packing, forced retirements, and jurisdictional changes weaken judicial independence. The goal is not to abolish courts but to make them compliant.
Phase 3(Years 3–5)
Electoral Rule Changes
Gerrymandering, voter ID restrictions, changes to election commission composition, and media blackout rules tilt the playing field. Each change is individually defensible; collectively, they make opposition victory increasingly unlikely.
Phase 4(Years 4–7)
Opposition Suppression
Legal tools — tax investigations, defamation suits, terrorism charges — replace crude repression. Opposition leaders face imprisonment or exile.
Phase 5(Years 5+)
Constitutional Revision
Term limit removal, executive power expansion, and constitutional referenda under controlled conditions formalize the concentration of power.

The most dangerous aspect of this pattern is that each phase provides cover for the next. By the time constitutional changes occur, the media that would report on them has been captured, the courts that would challenge them have been packed, and the opposition that would contest them has been weakened.

Country Profiles: The Past Decade

Hungary

LDI change (2016–2025): –0.31 (most significant decline in the EU)

Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party has systematically reshaped Hungary's institutions since 2010. The timeline illustrates the playbook:

  • 2010–2013: Constitutional changes, media regulation overhaul, Central Bank politicization
  • 2014–2017: NGO restrictions ("Stop Soros" law), Central European University forced to relocate
  • 2018–2022: Judicial retirement age changes, media consolidation into a government-aligned foundation
  • 2023–2025: EU funding disputes, continued institutional capture despite EU rule-of-law concerns

Hungary remains an EU member with regular elections. Fidesz wins those elections — but on a playing field it has systematically tilted.

India

LDI change (2016–2025): –0.24

The world's largest democracy has experienced measurable decline in press freedom, minority rights protections, and civil society space. Key developments:

  • Press freedom rank fell from 133 to 159 (Reporters Without Borders)
  • NGO funding restrictions through FCRA amendments
  • Sedition laws used against journalists and activists
  • Internet shutdowns (India leads the world in government-ordered shutdowns)

India's democratic erosion is contested — supporters of the current government argue that majoritarian democracy is functioning as intended. Critics point to shrinking space for dissent and minority protection as evidence of democratic substance eroding beneath democratic form.

United States

LDI change (2016–2025): –0.13

The United States' democratic decline is driven by different mechanisms than other backsliding countries: extreme political polarization, declining institutional trust, challenges to electoral integrity norms, and structural features (Electoral College, Senate apportionment, gerrymandering) that increasingly diverge from majoritarian outcomes.

The January 6, 2021 Capitol breach marked the first serious challenge to peaceful power transfer since the Civil War. While the immediate crisis was resolved, the underlying dynamics — a significant minority willing to reject electoral outcomes — represent a persistent vulnerability.

El Salvador

LDI change (2016–2025): –0.35

President Nayib Bukele's concentration of executive power represents one of the most rapid democratic declines in the hemisphere. Despite sustained supermajority approval ratings:

  • Legislature packed with allies in 2021
  • Constitutional court justices replaced with loyalists
  • State of emergency extended repeatedly, suspending civil liberties
  • Term limit prohibition circumvented for 2024 re-election

El Salvador illustrates a challenging question for democracy measurement: what happens when a leader who is genuinely popular dismantles democratic constraints? The population supports the changes. The institutions don't survive them.

Tunisia

LDI change (2016–2025): –0.52 (steepest decline globally)

Once the sole success story of the Arab Spring, Tunisia's democratic experiment collapsed in stages:

  • 2021: President Saied suspended parliament, ruling by decree
  • 2022: New constitution concentrating executive power approved via low-turnout referendum
  • 2023–2025: Opposition arrests, media restrictions, NGO harassment

Tunisia's collapse is particularly instructive because it had functioning democratic institutions — a new constitution, independent election commission, active civil society. Economic dysfunction and political deadlock created the opening for executive power seizure.

Democratic Decline — V-Dem LDI Change (2016–2025)

Larger bar = greater loss of democratic quality

Tunisia
–0.52
El Salvador
–0.35
Hungary
–0.31
India
–0.24
United States
–0.13

Where Democracy Is Advancing

The picture is not universally bleak. Several countries have made meaningful democratic gains:

Poland (Recovery)

After eight years of PiS government that weakened judicial independence and media pluralism, the 2023 election brought a coalition committed to institutional restoration. The recovery is incomplete — rebuilding captured institutions takes longer than capturing them — but the trajectory has reversed.

Brazil (Stabilization)

The 2022 election and peaceful power transfer, despite the January 8, 2023 Brasília riots, demonstrated institutional resilience. Democratic norms were tested and held, though vulnerabilities remain.

Moldova (Advancement)

EU accession process and pro-democratic government have produced measurable institutional improvements. Press freedom and judicial independence scores have increased despite persistent Russian interference efforts.

Zambia (Advancement)

The 2021 election and peaceful transfer of power from the incumbent represented a significant democratic moment for Southern Africa. Subsequent governance has maintained democratic commitments.

The Role of Elections

Elections are necessary but not sufficient for democracy. The data reveals a critical distinction:

Elections as accountability mechanisms — In full democracies, elections serve as the primary mechanism for removing leaders who fail. Incumbents lose regularly, and they leave.

Elections as legitimation tools — In hybrid regimes and electoral autocracies, elections serve to legitimize incumbents rather than hold them accountable. Elections happen on schedule, opposition candidates appear on ballots, but the outcome is not in genuine doubt.

87%
Incumbent win rate
Electoral autocracies since 2010
54%
Incumbent win rate
Liberal democracies since 2010

What Protects Democracy

Cross-national analysis of countries that have resisted backsliding pressures reveals protective factors:

| Factor | Protective Effect | Examples | |--------|-------------------|---------| | Constitutional term limits | Strong (when enforced) | Costa Rica, South Korea | | Independent election commissions | Strong | Uruguay, Botswana | | Proportional representation | Moderate (prevents winner-take-all dynamics) | Scandinavian countries | | Professional civil service | Moderate (resists politicization) | Germany, Japan | | Strong civil society | Strong (provides early warning and resistance) | Poland (2023 recovery) | | EU / international membership | Moderate (external accountability) | Romania, Czech Republic | | Free and diverse media ecosystem | Strong | Taiwan, Netherlands | | High social trust | Strong | Nordic countries, New Zealand |

No single factor is sufficient. But countries with multiple protective factors demonstrate remarkable resilience even under sustained pressure.

Data Sources

Why This Matters

Democratic backsliding is not inevitable. It is the result of specific decisions by specific leaders — and it can be resisted by specific institutional designs and civic responses.

The data shows both the threat and the possibility. Countries like Poland demonstrate that backsliding can be reversed. Countries like Estonia demonstrate that good institutional design creates resilience. And the consistent finding across all datasets is that the structure of governance matters — not just who governs, but how the system constrains and empowers them.

Understanding these patterns is the first step toward protecting democratic governance where it exists and building it where it doesn't.

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